With the United States and Iran engaged in an active military conflict and diplomatic signals pointing in contradictory directions, Hussein Banai, associate professor of international studies in the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies at Indiana University Bloomington, appeared on DW News to help make sense of the competing narratives surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations.
The segment aired in early March 2026, as President Trump claimed negotiations with Tehran were going well while Iran publicly denied any talks were underway. Banai — a specialist in U.S.-Iran relations, diplomatic history, and Iran's political development — challenged the reliability of the administration's framing, pointing to a pattern he argued was well established by this point in Trump's presidency.
"The credibility of what the president says is really not very high, and especially when it comes to Iran. We've had repeatedly Donald Trump say that things are going well and right around the corner, and then he will come and say that they weren't going well — and that's why he either ordered the assassination of a senior general, or the war has commenced."
Banai also addressed the simultaneous reports of a U.S. troop buildup in the Middle East, noting that the military trajectory bore a striking resemblance to the run-up to previous escalations. He argued the pattern suggests the administration may be using the language of diplomacy to obscure preparations for intensified military action — and that Iran's stated positions may offer a more accurate read of the situation than the president's public statements.
On the question of Iran's nuclear program, Banai pushed back on Trump's claim that Tehran had agreed to never pursue nuclear weapons, calling it factually inaccurate. Iran, he noted, has consistently maintained its program is for peaceful purposes — a position that long predates the current conflict.
"Iran has always claimed that its program is for peaceful purposes, that it does not intend to make a nuclear bomb. It has never said that it's pursuing nuclear weapons. So the claim here that Iran has said it's never going to make nuclear weapons is factually inaccurate."
Banai also offered a skeptical reading of Trump's claim to have achieved "regime change" in Iran. While the U.S. and Israel have eliminated senior Iranian leaders — including Supreme Leader Khamenei — Banai noted the Islamic Republic has shown a consistent capacity to replenish its ranks. He argued that the regime retains control of key institutions and commands a durable base of support, making popular uprising unlikely in the current climate.
"This is a country of 90 million and this regime has a good 20 to 25% base of support. It can keep replenishing its ranks as well. We see no sign that the regime has actually lost control of key institutions — military, security, intelligence, and economic."
Banai's DW appearance adds to a longstanding record of public scholarship on the U.S.-Iran relationship. He is co-author of Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the US-Iran Conflict (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2022) and co-editor of International Studies Review, the flagship journal of the International Studies Association. He is also a research affiliate at the Center for International Studies at MIT.