Hussein Banai, associate professor of international studies at the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies examines the cease-fire agreement Iran and the United States signed on June 17 after 107 days of war, arguing it amounts to a stalemate rather than a resolution, in a new essay for Foreign Affairs.
In “When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate,” Banai examines the agreement Tehran and Washington signed on June 17, ending 107 days of war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The deal grants Iran significant relief—including sanctions waivers on its oil exports, the release of frozen funds and a reconstruction package worth at least $300 billion—while leaving Iran’s nuclear program, missile arsenal and regional proxy network unresolved. Banai argues this outcome falls well short of the maximalist goals President Trump set when he launched the war in February, when he vowed to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and potentially topple the regime itself.
Rather than framing the result as an American defeat, Banai contends it largely restores the prewar status quo and is one Washington can still manage without further conflict. He traces how Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz gave Tehran new leverage despite the country’s deteriorating domestic and economic conditions, and he argues that the resulting standoff is harder for the United States to accept than for Iran, which he describes as practiced in sustaining adversarial equilibrium with Washington over five decades. Banai recommends that the United States rely on regional partners, security assistance and targeted diplomacy—rather than renewed warfare—to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and proxy network going forward.
The essay builds on Banai’s long-standing research into U.S.-Iran relations, including his book Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the U.S.-Iran Conflict (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2022), co-authored with Malcolm Byrne and John Tirman. A frequent media commentator on Iran, Banai has appeared in The Washington Post, The New York Times and on the BBC, among other outlets.
Banai’s analysis reflects the Hamilton Lugar School’s mission to advance public understanding of pressing global challenges through rigorous, policy-relevant scholarship. He is a faculty member in the Department of International Studies, part of the Indiana University Hamilton Lugar School, within the IU College of Arts and Sciences.
Read the full essay, “When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate,” in Foreign Affairs