During a debate in Japan’s Diet last Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a potential conflict over Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. This legal classification could justify military action under Japan’s 2015 security legislation. Her remarks sparked diplomatic backlash from China, including a provocative but now-deleted social media post by a Chinese consul-general that Tokyo formally protested.
While Takaichi’s comments have drawn attention for their directness, experts caution against interpreting them as a definitive policy shift. Bloomberg News reached out to Indiana University Hamilton Lugar School’s Professor Adam Liff for analysis, who told the reporter that mistranslations/misinterpretations of what she actually said have created far more heat than light. “Her response is best understood as a frank recognition of one possibility that’s been discussed internally within the government of Japan – and noted in public by many politicians and other observers – rather than a clear shift in position,” said Liff.
Liff is professor of East Asian International Relations in the Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures, where he also serves as the director of the 21st Century Japan Politics Society Initiative. Both are part of the Hamilton Lugar School.
His comment reflects on his extensive research on related subjects, which has highlighted the nuanced and intentionally ambiguous nature of Japan’s positions both on Taiwan’s status and how it might respond in the event of a cross-Strait conflict. The 2015 legislation—another focus of Liff’s past scholarship—allows for collective self-defense in limited scenarios, but successive governments have avoided specifying what would trigger use of force in a scenario in which Japan itself was not directly attacked. Takaichi’s remarks flag the possibility that a Taiwan-related contingency could be above that threshold if its U.S. ally came under fire yet stop far short of committing Japan to military involvement. As such, they are compatible with positions expressed by past Japanese prime ministers.
As tensions in the Taiwan Strait continue to rise and the U.S. and its allies seek to bolster deterrence, Japan’s strategic calculus—and its public signaling—will remain important spaces to watch. Read the full article at Bloomberg news.
Explore more insights on Indo-Pacific diplomacy and security via Liff’s research website and through upcoming events posted on the 21JPSI website,.