How realistic is a nuclear strike? Expert analysis of A House of Dynamite
How realistic is the 2025 thriller A House of Dynamite?
The movie is more entertainment than reality. The plot line of a single nuclear missile fired against the United States from an unknown adversary is highly improbable. If nuclear weapons are ever used against the homeland, it would most likely occur as an escalatory move within a larger crisis, such as a conventional conflict. We would probably see a buildup preceding the use of nuclear weapons, not a bolt from the blue attack.
Does it raise any real concerns? The movie raises three critical national security issues. It spotlights how nuclear weapons in this era of great power competition are now front and center as instruments of national power and coercion.
Second, it underscores the need to maintain secure and reliable emergency hotlines. These are lines of communication to the leaders of the world’s nuclear powers as a safeguard against miscalculation or misunderstanding in a nuclear crisis. The hotline between Moscow and Washington was set up after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and crisis channels at multiple military levels with Beijing—a rising nuclear power—need to be established as U.S. and Chinese assets risk collision in the air and maritime domains.
And lastly, the movie also underlines the need for robust ballistic missile defense. There is a scene in the film in which the U.S. fails to destroy an incoming missile with its own limited arsenal of interceptors. No missile shield is perfect, and defending against a massive assault is infeasible, but ensuring that national defenses keep pace with technological change will give future presidents tools to counter certain types of nuclear attack or blackmail.
What’s the takeaway? Nuclear weapons and strategies to counter them are no longer relics of the Cold War. These weapons of mass destruction are now fully integrated into the strategic calculus and toolkits of U.S. adversaries, and we might need to consider policies addressing the aspirations of potential newcomers to the nuclear club. A House of Dynamite is heart-pounding entertainment, but also a sobering reminder that coming generations will live under the shadow of the bomb.
The movie is more entertainment than reality. The plot line of a single nuclear missile fired against the United States from an unknown adversary is highly improbable. If nuclear weapons are ever used against the homeland, it would most likely occur as an escalatory move within a larger crisis, such as a conventional conflict. We would probably see a buildup preceding the use of nuclear weapons, not a bolt from the blue attack.
Does it raise any real concerns? The movie raises three critical national security issues. It spotlights how nuclear weapons in this era of great power competition are now front and center as instruments of national power and coercion.
Second, it underscores the need to maintain secure and reliable emergency hotlines. These are lines of communication to the leaders of the world’s nuclear powers as a safeguard against miscalculation or misunderstanding in a nuclear crisis. The hotline between Moscow and Washington was set up after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and crisis channels at multiple military levels with Beijing—a rising nuclear power—need to be established as U.S. and Chinese assets risk collision in the air and maritime domains.
And lastly, the movie also underlines the need for robust ballistic missile defense. There is a scene in the film in which the U.S. fails to destroy an incoming missile with its own limited arsenal of interceptors. No missile shield is perfect, and defending against a massive assault is infeasible, but ensuring that national defenses keep pace with technological change will give future presidents tools to counter certain types of nuclear attack or blackmail.
What’s the takeaway? Nuclear weapons and strategies to counter them are no longer relics of the Cold War. These weapons of mass destruction are now fully integrated into the strategic calculus and toolkits of U.S. adversaries, and we might need to consider policies addressing the aspirations of potential newcomers to the nuclear club. A House of Dynamite is heart-pounding entertainment, but also a sobering reminder that coming generations will live under the shadow of the bomb.
Zachary Constantino is a professor of practice in the Hamilton Lugar School Department of International Studies. He served for 20 years in the U.S. government, working on national security, intelligence, and diplomacy. His views are his own.